Globalisation of Climate Change: Impacts on India
Keywords: Climate Change, Globalisation, India, Environment, technology, impact, society, threat, climate
Written By: Mrigank Gurudatt
ABSTRACT
“At present, we are stealing the future, selling it in the present, and calling it Gross Domestic Product,” says Environmentalist Paul Hawken when he points out the imminent threat facing humanity. Climate Change from the aspect of national security and non-traditional security threat has been neglected for a long. Due to political, economic, as well as social reasons.
India lately has been at the forefront of the Global Alliance in combating climate change like the initiative at the recently concluded COP 26 in Glasgow. Where PM Shri Narendra Modi approved the updated Nationally Determined Contribution which had an important message by the PM. Where he stressed the need to adopt a Lifestyle for the Environment (L.I.F.E). But less attention has been paid to the already visible impacts of Climate Change. That has affected Food Security, Human Security, National Security, as well as other critical avenues.
Existing laws like the Environment Protection Act, of 1986 fail to effectively address this issue. With their limitations like Section 24 of the Act which states that an offense committed under EPA or any other similar law will be punishable under the latter. With such gaps in our municipal law, achieving the goals such as the target of net zero emission by 2070. And the reduction of the Carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030 seems impossible. The laxity of Climate Change laws in India exposes the fault lines in our security apparatus. Cases like Rajiv Dutta vs. Union of India (2016) become of utmost importance in providing reality checks to bodies like NGT. Which still don’t have stricter compliance mechanisms to counter Security Challenges posed by Climate Change.
INTRODUCTION
Combating climate change-induced disaster risks would require disseminating information. The vulnerability and hazards involve organizations spanning the globe. Collecting data on Refugee migration, Crop loss & global rise in temperature which causes water-sharing issues between nations. So this article aims to address the security implications of Climate Change on India with examples along with comparisons from other nations. The research follows a doctrinal method of data collection from various secondary sources like commentaries, reports, journals, etc. due to time & budgetary constraints.
The article aims to address questions such as Climate Change resulting in migration and its impact on India’s National Security, diplomacy, and IR. A comparative study shall be drawn between the Western Model &SE Asian model. On various socio-economic and policy aspects and remedies provided by Intl. organizations like UNFCCC & COP26. This research follows a doctrinal methodology where various primary sources are referred as well as secondary sources in the form of comparison are drawn.
BACKGROUND
In the past, organizations under UNEP & WMO like the International Panel on Climate Change 1988. They have failed to study the problem & provide solutions for developing nations like India. The IPCC produced four reports in 1990, 1995, 2001 & 2007 respectively with the Stern Review of 2006. Dealing with the economics of climate change even before the publication of reports. But not much has been achieved as far as the security implications of Climate Change are concerned. The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC considers six emission scenarios ranging from mildest B1 to most severe A1 F1 with a significant rise in mean sea level.
The surface means the temperature of the planet is also expected to rise with serious projections in SE Asia. This states that by 2050 the Himalayan Glacier thawing will increase flooding within 2-3 decades, decreased crop productivity in East and SE Asia by 20%, and Central & SE Asia by 30%. With devastating effects in the form of disruptive migrations due to food & water shortage and the outbreak of Pandemics like SARS COV.
Countries on Climate Change
Some countries like Maldives, Kirbati & Tuvalu are on the verge of submergence. Due to the rise in sea levels & have requested countries like Australia & New Zealand for population relocation[1]. It is more worrisome in India’s context based on the sixth IPCC report with cities like Mumbai and Kolkata. It projected to submerge within the next nine years[2].
Another Security impact of Climate Change with potential globalized consequences will be on Geopolitics. For example the melting of the arctic ice will make areas on the continental shelf of the five Arctic circle countries US, Canada, Denmark, Norway & Russia accessible for exploitation of natural resources. Russia has already staked its claim to the 1.19 sq. Km of the continental shelf from Siberia with the UNCLCS and has started sending expeditions to the area. This may lead to armed conflicts in the region with opposition from the West[3] similarly in the Indian context. The melting of permafrost could transfer more arable land to China & cause population exchange of Han tribe to Tibet[4].
1.1 Migration Trends
Developed countries that are facing demographic change due to climate refugees swamping their population are pressurizing developing nations like India. To reduce emissions while ignoring genuine concerns of developing countries that reduced Energy usage will increase poverty & destabilize their economies & Politics.
2.1 War and Conflict
Countries like the UK have linked Climate Change with wars when Mrs. Margaret Beckett, UNSC chair in 2007 said that changing rainfall patterns, and food & water shortage lead to wars[5]. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) in its May 2007. The report termed climate change-induced war as new “conflict constellations” and recommended adaptation strategies for developing countries[6].
3.1 Economy
Nick Maby of the Royal United Services Institution identifies transition to the low carbon economy as a possible solution. As quoted by UNDP in the Millenium Development Goals “Climate Change, a global phenomenon, calls for a collective response in the form of global partnerships”. The 11th plan document states that “We have to evolve a Positive stance toward adaptation and also constructively with the international community to reach a consensus on mitigation based on fair principles of burden sharing”
4.1 Environmental
Climate Change is expected to cause a rise of 1.06mm to 1.75mm p.a. in the sea level[7]. Which will result in a sea level rise of 0.4 to 2.0 mm along the Gulf of Kutch and low-lying areas and coastal megacities will be subjected to increased erosion and loss of coastal protection from natural ecosystems such as coral reefs and wetlands and loss in farm net revenue b/w. 9 to 25 percent with increased frequency of El Nino like events devastating the Indian coasts. NATCOM and GOI-DEFRA AR indicate 4-5 mn. in. Loss in wheat production & also fish.
GLOBALISATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate Change, terrorism, pandemics & other non-traditional security threats have diffused cross-border characteristics that affect human security directly. The UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow which saw 120 world leaders in attendance and over 40,000 registered participants, including 22,274 party delegates, 14.124 observers, as well as 3.886 media representatives speaks volumes. About its Global nature where the countries recognized the emergency of Global Warming & made commitment to cut CO2 emission by 45%. The Glasgow climate pact called on all countries to present stronger national action by COP27.
India’s Union Minister for Women and Child Development also stressed its importance while speaking at the event of the 66th Commission. On the status of women where she said that “India firmly believes in fulfilling all our commitments made under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and is proud that the country’s per capita carbon footprint is 60% lower than the global average”. It laid down the theme of “One Sun, One World and One Grid” with focus on Environmental Justice[8]. According to ICRA, the five-pronged strategy of ‘Panchamrit’ presented by PM Modi at COP-26 will likely attract billions in investments, especially in GHG emitting sectors like power, industry, and transport that emit 90% of CO2 as per 2019 data of IEA and resulting capital will be invested in fulfilling promises of SDG like the 500GW renewable energy by 2030, EV penetration of 10%< by 2025 and 20% ethanol blending for petrol[9].
Resolution on Climate Change
India recently voted against a crucial resolution on climate change which stated that Climate Change could pose a key risk to “global peace, security and stability”. By “exacerbating, prolonging, or contributing to the risk of future conflicts and instability”. The draft resolution called on the UN secretary-general to “integrate climate-related security risk as a central component into comprehensive conflict-prevention strategies”. It also said UN peacekeepers should have “appropriate training within existing resources on climate-related security risks”. So that climate security should be part of the mandate of UN missions[10]. But the Global consensus on Climate change has its drawbacks for poor & developing nations like India. When Boehmer-Christiansen (2003) says that a transition to greener and more sustainable economy will be disadvantageous. For the developing nations and increase the burden on them[11].
Some transnational effects of Climate Change are discussed below:
1. Climate Change and Disasters
As per World Meteorological Organisation, a disaster has occurred every day on average over the past 50 years. Taking lives of 150 people and causing an economic loss of more than USD 202 mil. daily, from 1970-2019. The weather, climate, as well as water hazards accounted for 50% of all disasters, 45% of all reported deaths and 74% of all reported economic losses. The more alarming fact is that only half of the 193 members of WMO have multi-hazard early warning systems while the underdeveloped nations fail to procure the technology[12].
The change in mean temperature of 0.6°C for the period 1901-2010 has been primarily on account of a long-term trend of an increase in daily maximum temperature. There is only a short-term, 30-year trend of increase in daily minimum temperature. Comparing to the global mean temperature rise that is on account of the increase in daily minimum temperature[13]. But still, India remains one of the World’s most disaster-prone countries with nearly 59% of the Indian Landmass prone to earthquakes. Over 40 million hectares prone to floods & 5700km/7516km long coastline exposed to Cyclones & Tsunamis[14].
2. Climate Change and Transfer of Technology
Addressing the plenary meeting of the International Monetary as well as Financial Committee of the IMF in Washington D.C. the Hon’ble. Finance Minister Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted the necessity of a multilateral approach in combating climate change[15][16]. Technology transfer has been a long-standing issue in the United Nations Climate Change actions with Article 4 of the UNFCCC (Rio Summit 1992). Specifically mentioning the importance of tech transfer to developing and least developed nations. The major security challenge for India lies in ToT where most of the patented tech. solely lies with the developed nations like U.S., Japan & RoK. Achieving the objective laid down
Article 2 of UNFCCC which aims to stabilize GHG concentration in the atmosphere that would prevent the Climate system would require significant ToT to achieve the objective[17]. Moreover, as per UNFCCC Articles 4.5 & 4.7 “developed country parties in Annex I and II should take all practicable steps. To promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of or access to environmentally sound technologies and knowhow to other parties. Particularly developing country parties, to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention”. Union Environment Minister Shri. Bhupender Yadav had already highlighted the importance of technology transfer to developing countries at the Major Economics Forum on Energy and Climate. It was convened by US President Mr. Joe Biden where he highlighted several Flagship schemes. Like the National Hydrogen Mission in line with the commitments made at Paris COP. It pointed out India’s minimal usage of Global Carbon Budget considering its population[18].
Role of Technology in mitigation of Climate Change:
Phasing out of CFCs – Montreal Protocol According to a NASA study published in the journal ‘Geophysical Research Letters earlier this year (January 4th), the ozone hole is recovering. It is the first direct proof of recovery based on the measurements of the chemical composition inside the ozone hole. To confirm that not only is ozone depletion decreasing, but the decrease is caused by a decline in chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The recovery of the ozone layer is testimony to what international cooperation can achieve. It is also crucial to understand the role of technology that enabled the phasing out of CFCs, which was primarily responsible for the ozone hole.
In the late 1970s, DuPont was the world’s major producer of CFCs (Freon), with a 25 percent market share. In 1980, the company patented HFC 134a, the leading CFC alternative, subsequently filing more than 20 patents before and after the Montreal Protocol. The development of alternatives to CFCs resulted in the reduction of CFCs in the atmosphere. The success of the Montreal Protocol is the result of coordinated regulatory and technological development.
3. Climate Change and Migration
The population of India is expected to rise to 1.5 billion by 2030 which will result in increased population density in Asia migrations account for 64% of Urban growth. If the aspirations of people are not met then it will lead to Urban Conflicts by the spread of ideologies such as ‘Naxalism’ and ‘Nativism’. NATCOM report has indicated that a one-meter sea level rise will displace approx. 7.1 mn. people in India and about 5,764 sq. km. of land will be lost in the process. Greenpeace’s Blue Alert report shows that a rise of 4-5°C in Global Temperature will displace about 125 million migrants by the end of the century[19]. Authors Tim, Dyson, and Visaria estimate by UN figures that migration from Bangladesh and Nepal. It would increase which will present a grave security challenge to India[20].
4. Climate Change and Geopolitics
India did not become a signatory of the COP26 pledge to stop deforestation and cut methane gas emissions by 2030. A move criticized by many Global Experts who argue that India lost 66,000 hectares (ha) or 0.65% of humid primary forest. As defined as mature, natural, humid, tropical forest cover that has not been completely cleared and regrown b/w. 2017 & 2019[21]. The flawed definition of India’s forest cover was raised in the technical assessment report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on India’s Forest Reference Level (FRL) submitted in 2018 as well as The Forest Survey of India referred to this lack of clarity. In its 2019 report titled ‘India’s NDC of creating an additional carbon sink: Possibilities, scale, and costs for formulating strategy'[22].
India has been particularly vocal about Climate Finance when it comes to achieving SDG. In an interview with the Associated Press India’s Union Minister Shri. Bhupender Yadav had said that “I believe the biggest responsibility … lies with the developed countries,” Yadav said. “Because if there is any gap that remains it is in the action for climate finance.”. Presently the developed nations provide aid of $80bn annually to the developing nations to adopt clean energy systems while India alone needs $2.5 trillion as per a 2019 MoE&F report[23]. The concept of ‘Resource Nationalism’ is prevalent in Latin American countries in the Energy sector. Which have slowed down the global economy and has created a trade war between various states.
On September 15, 2008, Ditte Juul-Jorgensen of the European Commission’s Trade Directorate conceptualized the idea of imposing Border tariffs by the developed states. To stop carbon leakage even though the carbon level emissions of developing countries is low. India’s oil consumption is around 2.8mn barrels/day.
SECURITISATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
Climate Change will have the following devastating impacts on India’s National Security:
1. Unlike Conventional security threats, Climate Change can simultaneously affect several countries within a single Time Frame. Resulting in the erosion of economic & environmental climate in fragile conditions that will be exploited by extremists. Ex: The International Water Resource Management Institute projects that by 2025 large parts of India will be Water scarce[24]. Access to vital resources will play a huge role in igniting conflicts across the Globe like Darfur in Africa. Where drought resulted in the loss of both farmland and grazing land to the desert which pushed the nomads southward. In search of water and herding ground, and resulted in a conflict with the farming tribes occupying those areas[25]. The Indian Subcontinent is already facing food shortages[26].
2. Impact of Climate Change on the Environment begs an important question:
What is Environmental Justice or Climate Justice? U. Thant, the secretary general of, United Nations, in the Stockholm conference gave an accurate statement on the question. “Like or not we are traveling together on a common planet and we have no national alternative but to work together, to make an environment in which we and our children can live a full and peaceful life”. There is no entry on ‘environmental protection’ in the legislative lists in the Constitution of India. But the 74th Amendment gives state legislatures power to legislate upon ‘urban forestry. Protection of the environment & promotion of ecology’.
So can it be inferred from Article 142 of the Constitution[27] that SC has the power to do Climate Justice? In catena of cases Supreme Court held that “Right to live is a fundamental right under Article 21 of Constitution. It includes the right of enjoyment of pollution-free water and air for full enjoyment of life. If anything endangers or impairs that quality of life in the derogation of laws. A citizen has recourse to Article 32 of the Constitution[28]. Climate Justice is important from the perspective of Indian National Security as it clashes with development & Human Rights.
3. Interstate Conflicts
Conflicts particularly regarding Water Sharing may pose a serious challenge to National Security. Rivers with the meandering course along the common borders. Like the New Moore Island between India & Bangladesh that recently submerged[29] could affect friendly geopolitical relations. The Bangladeshi side in the 2006 Joint River Commission. Meeting raised the issue of losing 900 acres to soil erosion along the border rivers of Ichhamati & Kalindi in Satkhira[30].
In the Era of Consequences report by the US Centre for Strategic as well as International Studies (CSIS), experts warn that climate change could bring an end to globalization[31]. As the Bangladeshi Water Resources Ministry, it has ceded 30,000 acres to India. Due to the erosion of border rivers since the Mujib-Indira Treaty of 1974.
For example
The Belonia sub-division in South Tripura has been a flashpoint due to meandering of the Muhuri River leading to skirmishes. The geopolitical situation with the Western Neighbour is likely to be complicated by a dispute arising as to the Indus Water Treaty. Questions will be raised on the change in hydrological circumstances and Pakistan may resort to Article VII of the treaty for negotiations. The impact of glacier melt along the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and flashfloods. Similar to the Tsangpo and Parechu in 2000 & 2004 could worsen Sino-Indian ties. The diversion of the Yarlung Tsangpo branch of Brahmaputra is worrisome for India.
4. The enhancement in emission levels of the developed countries is also one of the key factors contributing to Global Warming. The emission levels increased by 2.6% b/w. 2000 & 2005, the total emissions of the Annex II countries rose by 11% b/w. 1990 & 2005 which was described by India as ‘Alarming’, the emissions of Australia & US have risen by 23% & 16% respectively since 2000. These affected India’s economy which was plagued by disasters, in 2005 the calculation of loss stood at 87,500 cr.
5. Legal Framework
It exists in the International arena towards combating Climate Change. But it hardly has any effect and is mostly left to the jurisdiction of Individual states. The ICJ, for the first time, considered that environmental impact assessment was a general requirement under International law in cases of transboundary industrial activities[32]. Articles 47, 48A & 51A (g) of the Indian Constitution lay down the Constitutional ideals for the protection and preservation of the Environment with adequate sanctions. Legislations like Setting up of National Council for Environmental Policy and Planning were set up in 1972. Which later evolved into the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) in 1985.
Policy Statement for Abatement of Pollution and the National Conservation Strategy and Policy Statement on Environment and Development brought out by the MoEF in 1992 EAP (Environmental Action Programme). It was formulated in 1993 to improve environmental services and integrate environmental considerations into development programs. National Environment Policy, 2006; Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1974; Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Cess Act, 1977; Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981; Atomic Energy Act of 1982; Motor Vehicles Act, 1988; The Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972; The Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980. Environment (Protection) Act, 1986 (EPA); The National Environment Appellate Authority Act, 1997; Public Liability Insurance Act (PLIA), 1991. National Environment Tribunal Act, 1995 as well as Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) Notifications have failed to address the issue.
6. Climate Change from Military Perspective
It presents a grave threat. As per a World Bank report, South Asia may witness 40 million internal migrants by 2050[33]. About 80 percent of Maldives’s landmass is less than a meter above sea level, rendering its population of about 500,000 people. Highly vulnerable which will present coastal challenges to the Indian security force.
Climate Change also threatens critical military installations along the coast like the American Naval base at Norfolk, Virginia which was flooded nine times affecting the repair infra. and dry docks[34]. In Cyclone Hudhud, Indian Navy suffered losses as high as INR 2000 cr. due to infrastructural damage to the installations.
CONCLUSION
The Security Implications of Climate Change for India are numerous ranging from Military to Civilian and ultimately International. Even in the Cultural and Political sphere, its impact can be felt in a case[35] concerning indigenous inhabitants of Boigu, Poruma, Warraber, and Masig, four small, low-lying islands in Australia’s Torres Strait region. Where the islanders reported the degradation in the environment due to climate change. The tribe claimed that Australia violated plaintiffs FR’s under ICCPR. “On September 23, 2022, the U.N. Human Rights Committee found that Australia’s failure to adequately protect indigenous Torres Islanders against adverse impacts of climate change. It violated their rights to enjoy their culture and be free from arbitrary interferences with their private life, family, and home.” This shows that the security implications for India could be many ranging from Socioeconomic to political, cultural & even military.
The way forward is to maintain a database similar to EnviStats prepared by the NSO[36]. Other methods include Risk assessment and audits done by the Indian Military on the severity of disasters and logistical challenges posed by them. Climate Lawyer Michael Gerrard advocates for an International Court of Climate Rights[37]. In order to address these issues on War Footing, he cites the case of Urgenda (2019). Where the Dutch SC fixed the obligation of the Dutch Government towards reducing the country’s GHG emissions[38].
End Note
In combating Climate-related disasters for better preparedness, we can learn from the West. Where The Swedish Defence Research Agency organized the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Advanced Research Workshop in 2018. In order to analyze the disaster risks posed and possible responses in the conflict-ridden areas of West Africa[39]. India can also learn from Superstorm Sandy’s example which had devastating impacts on the northeastern seaboard. Harming critical infrastructure the Federal response to Hurricane Sandy illustrated the breadth and depth of response necessary from US Security forces on the management of manpower.
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